European New Records, USD and Commodity market | IFCM
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European New Records, USD and Commodity market

Optimism, everything the market needs!

DE30 printed a new record high earlier today at 15,309 as passing through the third wave of Covid-19, with the more positive sentiment on the vaccination program.

Yesterday's NY Times' report from Germany that they plan for vaccination of 20% of their citizen by the beginning of May helped stock market bulls push forward and print new fresh all-time highs.

The positive sentiment even caused ignoring the weaker than expected employment data of EZ. Eurozone unemployment rate did not change from 8.3% of the previous month, while the Market was expecting lower numbers at 8.1%. For higher levels in Stock Markets, we have to wait for the PMI data on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the UK planning its reopening from Monday, 12, April, which generally helping the market rallies, with more optimum sentiments. GB100 also at 6,820, gaining more than 1.2%.

On the other hand, US futures are losing 0.1% on average, pointing to a slightly lower, after the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 tested all-time highs in the previous session. Today's economic calendar in US season is light, with just JOLTS job openings taking center stage.

US dollar

USD

Dollar Index trading 0.2% higher after yesterday's free fall, caused on fresh Risk-On sentiment with much better than expected Jobs and ISM PMI data. Yesterday and after almost three months uptrend of USD, many investors' and traders' profit taking in the Market caused a significant loss in this index. US dollar index gained 2.5% in its most significant monthly gain since 2016, so a severe bout of profit-taking isn't that surprising.

Technically, USDIDX is moving between 20 and 50 HMA, and confirming its trend, need to exit this area (92.60 - 92.80). In past weeks, besides higher Yields, the dollar's reflationary trade against other economies helped it gain on most currencies. And now, after printing the five-month high, it has a bit of correction mood. Pivot point sits at 92.75. Above that, R1 and R2 respectively are set at 92.90 and 93.33. And on the flip side, we have S1 at 92.38 and S2 at 92.15.

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Oil rebounds on hopes!

Vital data of past days helped the Oil market rebound almost 1.4% to trade above 59.50, as investors looking forward to more recoveries in larger economies, like the US, UK, and China. Earlier today, Caixin service sector PMI data confirmed that activity in China's private services sector raised to 54.3 in March from 51.5 of February, experiencing the best performance in the past three months.

Also, the Oil markets' bulls are getting more boosted from US jobs and recovery in the US service sector, hoping for more demand in the following months, while we are entering the warmer months.

Later today, we will have API stockpile data and tomorrow's EIA inventory report, which both must be looked at closely. Increasing inventory levels can gag the market uptrend.

Gold, what is it looking for?

Gold

Gold's eye on FOMC meeting minutes to see what will happen with treasury yields and the member's idea on that? Should we take it more seriously (Which will lead the bulls), or as FED chair Powell and Treasury secretory Janet Yellen said, it will be short-lived, and we should not worry about it(Lowe prices for Gold). Gold trading clearly above 20 DMA, between the middle and upper line of BB, with RSI, returned above 50-level and its crucial and pivot point of $1,728. All technical indicators support the uptrend; however, the fresh uptrend in the Market needs to breathe above 50 DMA at $1,762. In return, $1,722 is the first support level, and we need to pass it to see the lower numbers.

Details
Author
Ahura Chalki
Publish date
15/12/23

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