Significant inflation data to be released today in the US - 13.7.2022

On Tuesday, the US dollar index continued to rise and once again updated the maximum since October 2002. Now it is trading above 108 points. The main growth driver is investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) will raise the rate at the next meeting on July 27. Moreover, according to CME FedWatch, with a probability of 90.6%, the rate will be increased immediately by 0.75% - up to 2.5%. There were no publications of significant economic statistics in the US yesterday. On the other hand, the ZEW European Union Economic Sentiment Indicator for July was released in the EU. It amounted to -51.1 points, which is the lowest level since 2011. Against this background, EURUSD fell below 1. This morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the rate to 2.5% from 2%, as expected. Britain released good data on GDP (+3.5% y/y) and industrial production for May. This contributed to the strengthening of the British pound. Tonight will be a meeting of the Bank of Canada, which may raise the rate from 1.5% to 2.25%.

Bitcoin fell yesterday for the 3rd day in a row. The $20,000 psychological mark is now a resistance level. Players react to not too positive news background. The United State Department of the Treasury has begun studying the cryptocurrency market in order to reduce risks for investors. This happened in accordance with the executive order (executive order) of US President Joe Biden, published in March of this year. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed the registration of the ARK 21Shares crypto fund for 45 days. Earlier, one of the largest crypto funds, Three Arrows Capital, filed for bankruptcy. Back in March of this year, his assets amounted to about $ 10 billion. In Texas, some large cryptominers suspended their work due to a lack of electricity. Due to extreme heat up to 110°F (43°C), the need for indoor air conditioning has increased.

Yesterday, the US stock market saw a decline in quotations. According to Refinitiv, the S&P 500 corporations' second-quarter combined earnings growth will be +5.7% y/y. This is well below inflation. Earlier, a more significant growth of +6.8% was forecast. Financial results of Delta Air Lines and other companies will be released today. However, investors' attention is riveted to more important economic data. Today in the US inflation for June will be published. According to forecasts, it can once again update the maximum since the beginning of the 80s of the last century and reach 9% y / y. In addition, an economic review of the Fed Beige Book will be released. Now, futures for US stock indices have risen slightly amid reports of an increase in sales of Boeing aircraft (+7.4% in yesterday's trading) in June to a maximum since March 2019. Against this backdrop, American Airlines Group rose 10% yesterday, United Airlines Holdings - 8% and Carnival Corporation - 7.5%. Investors hope for a recovery in the US air travel and tourism industry.

On Tuesday, oil quotes fell sharply. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell below $95 per barrel. The main reason for this was the report of the independent American Petroleum Institute on the increase in oil reserves in the US by 4.76 million barrels per week. This was followed by reports of new cases of coronavirus in China. This increases the risk of another lockdown. However, now oil is getting a little more expensive, as investors are trying to predict the outcome of the visit of U.S. President Joe Biden to Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the Middle East. Earlier, OPEC predicted an increase in global oil demand in 2023 by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd). At the same time, the cartel itself suggested that it could only increase production by 0.9 million bpd. Probably, the US is interested in a more active build-up of oil production by OPEC.