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Arabica Coffee Technical Analysis - Arabica Coffee Trading: 2020-04-22
COFFEE Technical Analysis Summary
Below 110.98
Sell Stop
Above 122.2
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral |
| MACD | Sell |
| Donchian Channel | Sell |
| MA(200) | Buy |
| Fractals | Sell |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
COFFEE Chart Analysis
COFFEE Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe #C-COFFEE : D1 is retracing down above the 200-day moving average MA(200), which is rising. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 110.98. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 122.22. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - COFFEE
The International Coffee Organization forecasts higher world coffee consumption in 2019/20. Will the COFFEE price reverse falling?
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimates world coffee consumption in 2019/20 at 169.34 million bags, 0.7%, higher than in 2018/19. And the trade statistics show the global coffee export rose in February over year compared with January exports. Thus world coffee exports amounted to 11.11 million bags in February 2020 compared with 10.83 million in February 2019, when exports in January 2020 amounted to 10.29 million bags compared with 11.14 million in January 2019. This indicates a rising demand for coffee and an upside risk for coffee prices. At the same time ICO estimates that a 1 percentage point drop in GDP growth results in a reduction in the growth of global demand for coffee of 0.95 percentage points. The estimate doesn’t include the impact of social distancing measures on out-of-home consumption when large parts of the hospitality industry are under lockdown and workplaces are closed. And the International Monetary Fund forecast a 3% drop in global growth in 2020, which represents a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020. An expected drop in global demand is bearish for coffee.
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