Opportunité de marché EUR/USD : Publication de l’IPC de la zone euro

EUR/USD is sitting right around 1.1550 this week, stuck in a choppy range that's been forming since late July. Buyers tried to push above 1.1565 a few times and got turned back each time, but the pair hasn't broken down either. It's basically in a holding pattern while everyone waits for the next piece of real information.

Eurozone's final CPI number, out Wednesday, August 19. The early read for July already came in at 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June, so most of the market already expects this to just confirm that number.

The real action only happens if the final print doesn't match the early estimate.

ECB has been hiking rates as inflation ticked higher over the past couple months, while the Fed just froze its rates in late July with three officials actually voting for a hike instead of holding.

• If the CPI number confirms 2.9% or comes in hotter, that supports the idea the ECB keeps its foot on the brake, maybe even raises again before year-end. That will pull money toward the euro, and you'd likely see EUR/USD push back up toward 1.1590, with 1.1685 as the next real resistance if buyers can clear that first level.
• If the number gets revised down, even to 2.7% or 2.8%, that takes pressure off the ECB to stay aggressive, and the euro would probably lose some ground. In that case, look for EUR/USD to slide back toward 1.1450, and possibly 1.1400 if the drop is a big surprise.
• If it lands exactly at 2.9% as expected, don't expect much action. That outcome is already priced in, so the pair would likely keep drifting sideways in the same range it's been stuck in.

Given what we have, its better setup is trading the range. Fading moves near 1.1565–1.1590 resistance and near 1.1450–1.1500 support has been working while the pair stays boxed in, and that probably continues until the CPI print actually breaks it one way or the other.

Note: Fed news that same week could easily overshadow a strong CPI number from the Eurozone. If the Fed sounds more hawkish or more dovish than expected, that alone could move the dollar more than the euro data does.