Que se passe-t-il pour l'EUR/USD si l'inflation sous-jacente baisse mais que l'inflation globale augmente

Right now, the headline PCE price index is 3.8%, because of high gas and grocery prices. Meanwhile, the Core PCE index (which ignores food and energy) is lower - 3.3%.

You should pay attention to this gap.

EURUSD is currently trading around 1.1605. Right now price is testing the resistance area between 1.1592 and 1.1618.

Even though EURUSD recently recovered from 1.1503, overall trend still favors the U.S. Dollar. The Euro cannot sustain a real recovery unless it breaks cleanly past 1.1600 resistance line.

If Core PCE Drops and Headline PCE Drops

When both numbers drop together, it shows a true decline in overall inflation.

• The action would be to buy EURUSD, a drop in both numbers will give traders the momentum to break above 1.1600 resistance, which might lead towards 1.1670 resistance level.

If Core PCE Exceeds 3.3%

This means inflation pressure remains high and the Fed will maintain high interest rates.

• In this case your action would be to sell EURUSD, since the pair will give up its recent gains and drop straight back down to test the 1.1500 support level and if that breaks, the next immediate target is 1.1457.

What If Core Inflation Drops But Headline Inflation Rises

IF Core PCE comes in lower f.e. 3.1%, but Headline PCE stays stuck at 3.8% or moves higher due to high energy costs.

A drop in Core number alone does not mean inflation is cooling down if the cost of living Headline remains elevated, in this case there will be two step price movement.

1. Algorithms and fast money traders immediately sell the Dollar on the soft Core headline, spiking EURUSD up past 1.1600.
2. Then within minutes, market realizes Fed cannot safely cut rates while food and gas are rising, and aggressively buys the Dollar back. This traps breakout buyers and drags EURUSD right back down toward 1.1500.