마켓 기회 : 주 16-03-2026 - 20-03-2026

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on March 18, 2026, and there will be high volatility window for the EURUSD pair. The data comes just as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day monetary policy meeting (March 17-18).

Current Market Situation

• Oil (WTI) has surged past the $110 level, hitting $114.60/barrel this morning, 25% surge in a single day, which is to be expected.
• EURUSD has breached the 1.1560 support and is currently moving around 1.1520. The euro has found itself caught between rising energy import prices and demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
• While the market still expects a pause on March 17–18, some officials are now whispering about rate hikes rather than cuts, as inflation (CPI) sits at 2.9% and oil threatens to push it toward 4%.

EURUSD Technical Levels

• Crucial Support 1.1500 (Psychological) and 1.1450. A weekly close below 1.1500 opens the door to the 2024 lows (1.059).
• Key Resistance - 1.1620 (former support) and 1.1710. In the current environment, any move toward 1.1650 is likely to be met with heavy selling.
• If WTI stays above $120, the PPI release becomes a secondary confirmation of a "stagflationary" Euro, keeping the bias firmly bearish.

There is a "PCE Nowcasting" effect that lets traders preview the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (PCE) using the PPI data released on March 18. Since PPI components like healthcare and airfares feed directly into the PCE, a "hot" report acts as a spoiler for upcoming inflation trends.

With oil hitting $115, high PPI numbers would confirm that "cost-push" inflation is surging. This signals to big banks that the Fed must keep interest rates high, providing a massive boost to the Dollar.

For EURUSD, this is a major sell signal. Because the Fed meets the same day the PPI drops, a high reading could force a "hawkish" afternoon press conference, potentially crushing the Euro to new 2026 lows.

Note: Because release of PPI data coincides with the second day of the FOMC meeting, the initial market reaction may quickly die down or reverse as traders adopt a wait and see attitude ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision and the release of the "dot chart.