마켓 기회 : 주 17-11-2025 - 21-11-2025

Japan is set to release its Q3 Real GDP growth (q/q) on November 17, with the market consensus forecasting +0.5% q/q. The reaction to this data will be filtered through the two dominant market forces: the wide US-Japan interest rate differential and the ever-present risk of Japanese FX intervention.

Fundamental Drivers

1. Monetary Policy Divergence: The massive yield differential between the dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the tighter US Federal Reserve continues to fuel the dollar-buying carry trade, providing a strong structural floor for USD/JPY.
2. Domestic Weakness: Any data confirming fragile Japanese domestic demand (weak consumption/spending) reinforces the BoJ's ultra-accommodative stance, which is structurally negative for the JPY.
3. Intervention Risk: The threat of the Japanese Ministry of Finance selling USD and buying JPY remains a critical ceiling on the pair. Most analysts suggest active intervention risk increases significantly as USD/JPY moves toward the 155.00 - 158.00 zone, particularly if the move is rapid or speculative positioning builds.

Trading Strategy

Wide yield differential, weak domestic demand suggest that a weak or in-line GDP report is the path of least resistance for USD/JPY, amplifying the current uptrend. A strong report is less likely to immediately change the BoJ's long term dovish outlook.

Bullish USD/JPY

• Trigger: GDP is in line or below the +0.5% consensus.
• Entry: Enter on consolidation or renewed momentum above 154.00 post-release.
• Target: 154.80 - 156.00, prepare for quick profit-taking at 155.00.
• Stop-Loss: Place below 153.00, immediate Support.

Bearish USD/JPY

• Trigger: GDP significantly exceeds expectations ( > or equal +0.8%).
• Entry: Enter on a confirmed break below the immediate support of 153.00.
• Target: 152.00 - 151.00 - major support.
• Stop-Loss: Place above 154.40 - recent highs.